i'd say... delorentos.

if a band is good and they have great songs they'll do well. if they don't they'll be loved by those discover them. look at snow patrol. david gray. the rapture. all spent ages trying and playing around before anything happened, and even when they got signed they still struggled, and eventually, they had a successful album. its never too late, there's no formula, and anything can happen.

U2 have a new album out and if they don't make it big this year I'd say they are finished. They have been around for over 6 years and are still virtually unknown outside these waters. I can see them losing hope.