Let the Race Begin…

Ian O'Sullivan on this Years' Oscar nominations

The buzz is louder than a thousand hives of killer bees. It's Oscar time again and LA is rife with rumour, gossip, and innuendo about this year's list. However, we at Cluas can given you the definitive guide to who will be in with a shout of carrying home a little bald gold fella, and who is there simply to make up the numbers. Pick a category below to read more.

Best Picture

Nominations: American Beauty, The Cider House Rules, The Sixth Sense, The Insider, The Green Mile

Initially seen as one of the most open races in recent years, the Academy's nominations can only be described as mystifying. 'Three Kings', 'Boys Don't Cry', 'Toy Story 2' and 'Being John Malkovich' were all shut out in favour of the box office giant 'The Sixth Sense' and sentimental death row drama 'The Green Mile'. These two can almost confidently be written off as honorable mentions rather than contenders. 'The Insider' flopped at the box office, something that the Academy rarely awards. It also drew controversy for playing around with a true life story of a tobacco employee spilling his dirty secrets. 'The Cider House Rules', a film with an average box office and fairly positive reviews shocked everybody by gaining 7 nominations. It was virtually shut out of every other major competition. But the combined advertising push by legendary Miramax as well as its lush, sentimental, melodramatic content probably appealed to the Academy's older branch. That leaves just 'American Beauty', adored by both critics and audiences around the world. Though it is unusual for such a dark satire to gain such recognition, the voters have cleared it an easy path to victory. Barring a major upset, it should walk away with the top prize.

Best Director

Nominations: Michael Mann (Insider), Spike Jonze (Being John Malkovich), M. Night Shyamalan (The Sixth Sense), Sam Mendes (American Beauty), Lasse Hallstrom (The Cider House Rules)

Only on a very few occasions have the Academy split director and picture awards. Last year caused a sensation when 'Shakespeare in Love' won the top prize, though 'Saving Private Ryan' won Best Director. It would be hard to imagine it happening once more this year. Though Mann and Shyamalan were hailed for their films, neither has the weight of critical backing that the hot shot debutantes of Jonze and Mendes have. Jonze's name delighted many that had seen the surreally brilliant Malkovich. But Mendes, an experienced theatre director, once again has the massive hit of 'American Beauty' behind him. That's not to say his work isn't top class throughout. It will be remembered as one of the most startling debuts in history and he will make a worthy victor on March 23rd.

Best Actress

Nominations: Annette Bening (American Beauty), Janet McTeer (Tumbleweeds), Hilary Swank (Boys Don't Cry), Julianne Moore (The End of the Affair) Meryl Streep (Music of the Heart).

First of all, forget about Streep. If she wins, there will be riots in the Dorothy Chandler Pavilion. Likewise, McTeer whose remarkable performance was in a film nobody had seen. Moore probably gave the best performances of the year in 'End of the Affair', Magnolia and Cookie's Fortune and An Ideal Husband, but there is little buzz surrounding her. Her day will come in the next 5 years, but it will not be now. That only leaves us with Bening and Swank. Though Swank has won an incredible 8 critics awards for her tragic, gender bending performance in Boys Don't Cry, she is only 25, and Oscars are generally reluctant to hand their prizes to people so young. However, she was universally acclaimed, and looks to be the front-runner. However, do not be surprised if Bening's name is called out instead. After a successful career in stage, Bening has given many praiseworthy performances on film, and American Beauty is the culmination. Add to this her marriage to Hollywood King, Warren Beatty, and American Beauty's box office might and multiple nominations and her chances become much better. This one, as in Best Actor, is too close to call.

Best Actor

Nominations: Kevin Spacey (American Beauty), Denzel Washington (The Hurricane), Russel Crowe (The Insider), Sean Penn (Sweet and Lowdown), Richard Farnsworth (The Straight Story)

Only a hugely sentimental vote could hand the ward to virtual unknown, 79 year old Farnsworth for his role as a lawnmower-riding philosopher in David Lynch's latest. Similarly, Penn's nomination is mystifying considering he was chosen over Jim Carrey for Man on the Moon and Matt Damon for 'The Talented Mr Ripley'. Crowe is one of Hollywood's fastest rising stars. He has the gargantuan Gladiator coming this summer. His remarkable performance as the shy, overweight whistleblower may have had the critics standing in the aisles, but he is still too fresh and new for the Academy's taste. Spacey gave the performance of his life as the inert middle-aged man re-discovering his adolescence. He managed to perfectly walk the tightrope between pathos and black comedy. However, he has been largely passed over in favour of Washington for his powerhouse performance as Rubin Carter, a boxer allegedly wrongfully imprisoned for murder. Though the film was attacked for its treatment of the true story, all were united in praise for Washington's potent mix of fire and dignity. Also, there has not been a black Best Actor winner since Sidney Poitier in the 60's. This may give him a slight edge over Spacey in the final run-up.

Supporting Actor

Definitely two of the hardest categories to call this year. The Actor race looks like a race between the polar opposites of Michael Clarke Duncan (The Green Mile), Tom Cruise (Magnolia) and Haley Joel Osment (The Sixth Sense). All of them would be worthy winners. However, for Clarke and Osment, these are first time nominations. Osment seems too young to win (though it didn't stop Tatum O' Neal). Cruise has been twice nominated for Best Actor, and it was widely felt that he was robbed when Geoffrey Rush (Shine) beat him for his brilliant turn in Jerry Maguire. Add up his popularity in Hollywood, his immense charisma and charm, and a performance that eclipses all others in the starry ensemble of Magnolia, then you have a package that will be hard to beat. BUT, before you get out your bookie forms, it seems that a large number of Academy members that were interviewed, have given Michael Caine for The Cider House Rules the thumbs up. Should be very interesting…….

Supporting Actress

Angelina Jolie looks increasingly like the girl to beat. Her role as the fiery sociopath in Girl, Interrupted proved the talent that lay behind her traffic-stopping looks. But she will face stiff competition from Toni Colette for her sincere, understated performance in The Sixth Sense and Catherine Keener for Being John Malkovich. This is the first nomination for all performers, so in a sense, all bets are off. But Jolie's success in the Golden Globes, and the lack of nominations from films such as American Beauty and Magnolia may mean that Jolie will add an Oscar to her two Globes.

Adapted Screenplay

1999 was considered something of a banner year for film writing. The nominees in both categories are without doubt, one of the strongest fields in recent years. The Insider, who may see this category as its only good shot at a win, will hotly contest the adaptation stakes along with John Irving's The Cider House Rules and Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor for the little seen Election. If Caine wins for Cider House, then the Academy may wish to spread the wealth and hand the adaptation award to The Insider.

Original Screenplay

It is increasingly likely that American Beauty will once again walk away with the award. It has won virtually every other award during the season, and former sitcom writer Alan Ball is probably writing his acceptance speech right now. The only potential spanner in the works may be Charlie Kaufman for his giddily inventive Being John Malkovich.

Technical Awards

As for the technical awards, look out for The Phantom Menace to rob The Matrix of most of these (please Academy members, reward the Waschowski's brilliance and not Lucas' indulgence!). Tim Burton's lush, gothic imagining of Sleepy Hollow has the best chance for cinematography, costumes and production design. As for Best Song, well unfortunately, we will have Phil Collins bleating some tired old ballad from the otherwise excellent Tarzan. That is of course unless Trey Park and Mark Shaiman stage a spectacular coup and win for their hilarious 'Blame Canada' from South Park: Bigger Longer and Uncut. Hands up who wants to see what the Academy will do to that song before they broadcast it!

Ian O'Sullivan